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The
earthquake historically has been recognized as one of the most destructive
natural disaster which has claimed both human causalities and economical
damages. In order to reduce the destructive effects of the earthquake among
other measures such as preparedness, the earthquake prediction has long been
discussed within the different scientific communities. In general a prediction
can be meaningful if it can determine the time, the magnitude and the location
of a future impending earthquake; otherwise can have an adverse social and
economical effects.
Earthquake prediction is one of the most rewarding scientific challenges, and if
attained, a monumental scientific and technological achievement. The research
program, involving cutting edge science and technology, contributes to further
extending the frontiers of scientific and technological knowledge. In addition,
earthquake hazard would be better assessed, and contributed to the mitigation of
earthquake hazard. Innumerable lives and much valuable property would be saved,
and the effects on social and industrial activities would be minimized. The
earthquake prediction programs have been supported because of socio-economic
significance. However, we, as scientists, are much interested in its scientific
aspect.
There are four different time frames for earthquake prediction: long term,
intermediate term, short term, and impending. Long term prediction involves a
time frame of a decade or more and with limited usefulness for public safety.
Intermediate term prediction would fall into a time span of a few weeks to a few
years, and again it would not be of great practical usefulness. It is the short
term prediction that is specific information on the time and location of an
earthquake given within days, weeks, months - not years - that would be useful
for any kind of public safety.
Several specific geophysical, geological, and geochemical methods are presently
used for earthquake prediction. Among the present researches, computer
simulation and modeling of ground conditions to assess the patterns of
earthquake processes and analysis the acquired data for evolution of prediction
theory could be mentioned.
The NCEP Goals
The NCEP as the first National Research Center for the Earthquake Prediction has
been established at the IIEES by decree of Higher Education Development
Committee in order to improve the prediction knowledge in Iran. The center will
concentrate on organization of a data base of earthquake precursors for the
regions of higher risk in cooperation with national and international
universities, research centers and the relevant organizations. The NCEP
ultimately will advance on better understanding and recognition of earthquake
precursors, and will continue on definition of long, intermediate, short and
impending earthquake prediction algorithms.
The other important goals of the NCEP will be establishment of research and
planning communities, organizing national and international workshops and
conferences. The Centre will also be contributing to the education of
researchers and specialists in these fields. To achieve this goal, there is a
clear need for enhanced scientific contribution and technological breakthrough,
for which researchers bear the responsibilities.
The center based on the research priorities for the time being will be consisted
of the two following departments:
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Geodynamics and Seismic
Department
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Space and Earth Physics
Department
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