Developing a New Model for Assessing the Resilience of Historic-Commercial Urban Fabrics Against Earthquakes

Various models have been proposed to assess the resilience of typical urban fabrics against natural hazards such as earthquakes, evaluating resilience from different perspectives. However, there has been little comprehensive research on resilience, vulnerability, and ways to enhance safety and disaster management in historical bazaars against earthquakes. An earthquake in these places could have extensive cultural, social, and economic consequences. Given the differences between these areas and typical urban fabrics, it is reasonable to develop a new model for assessing resilience in such areas.

This research aims to evaluate the resilience of historical commercial fabrics against earthquakes (traditional bazaars) by proposing a new model based on a combination of dimensions, indicators, and sub-indicators related to resilience. In this context, the cultural-historical dimension was studied alongside physical, social, economic, and organizational dimensions. The effective indicators and sub-indicators in these five dimensions were identified, and their importance was calculated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).

To quantify the parameters with qualitative characteristics, fuzzy logic was applied, and the model was developed. The proposed model can calculate the performance of the system after an earthquake across five dimensions, which include 17 indicators and 50 sub-indicators, on a spatially separated basis for different sections of the bazaars. It also calculates the combined performance of the historical-commercial fabric, the recovery time after an earthquake, the overall resilience of the fabric against earthquakes, and provides a resilience chart against earthquakes.

Using this model, necessary interventions to enhance the resilience of different sections of the bazaars can be determined. The introduced model was then applied as a case study to assess the resilience of the historical bazaar of Tabriz against earthquakes based on the suggested indicators and dimensions. The performance of different sections of the historical bazaar of Tabriz and the existing resilience were calculated, and based on that, a ten-year resilience enhancement plan for the bazaar was proposed. It was shown how the fabric’s performance against potential earthquakes would change over different times as resilience enhancement operations are implemented.