Earthquake Prediction Center

Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting have long been discussed within the scientific community as part of broader efforts to mitigate the destructive effects of earthquakes, alongside measures such as preparedness. Earthquake prediction can only be considered useful if it specifies the time, magnitude, and location of an imminent earthquake; otherwise, it lacks significant social and economic impact.

The Earthquake Prediction Center was established at the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) based on a resolution by the Council for the Expansion of Higher Education under the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology. It officially began operations on February 20, 2005.

The devastating Bam earthquake on December 26, 2003, the potential for damaging earthquakes in Tehran and many major cities due to their proximity to seismic faults, along with fragmented research activities on earthquake prediction in the country, highlighted the necessity of establishing a central body to guide and manage both research and operational activities in earthquake prediction. This center was also envisioned to institutionalize and advance the knowledge of earthquake prediction in Iran.

With a focus on this mission, the Earthquake Prediction Center was formed with objectives in research, technology, and education in all aspects related to earthquake forecasting, with the following programs and duties:

Programs:

• Earthquake forecasting in the Iranian Plateau using statistical methods;
• Time-dependent hazard analysis in the Iranian Plateau;
• Modeling the behavior of faults and dynamic crustal deformation (stress–strain changes and fault slips);
• Modeling fault mechanics and the earthquake cycle (dynamic and kinematic models);
• Early warning systems;
• Establishment and operation of natural laboratories for earthquake precursors.